Entering 2022, the largest cloud looming over the investment horizon was inflation.
In December, Eurozone inflation hit a record high of 5%, whilst rates in the US reached their highest point in decades. As a result, we expect to see a surge towards inflation-linked products and protective asset classes, such as alternatives and real assets.
The impact of the Omicron covid variant will likely ripple throughout the first half of the year, before the more highly vaccinated countries push for a re-opening of international markets. Clearly, this remains an evolving story, and markets will need to be nimble in the face of further coronavirus mutations and subsequent restrictions.
More positively, we see China's 'Wealth Connect' programme as a potentially game-changing affair, with greater access to Chinese capital markets on the table should the Greater Bay Area trial go well.
Interestingly, a recent report from the World Economic Forum suggests that the trial may eventually lead to significant change within the Chinese asset management market, including a 'catch-up' rollout of environmental, social and governance (ESG) products.
We anticipate the drive towards carbon neutrality to accelerate in the near term as energy transformation continues to take hold. A perfect storm of increased consumer demand, lowering costs of renewable technology and supportive international policy make this, arguably, the greatest investable opportunity in a generation.
Looking more specifically at prime asset classes, we anticipate ESG playing a greater role in private equity (PE), with green issues rising to the top of the corporate agenda. The demand for sustainable and responsible business practices is such that increasing regulation and compliance may force fund managers to adopt ESG more stringently in Asia.